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Agriculture in Senegal will face three major interconnected challenges by 2050:
1.    ensuring sufficient, healthy, diverse, nutritious and accessible food for all members of a population that is set to double in the next 30 years;
2.    offering decent jobs and income prospects to young people, many of whom are already struggling with unemployment; and
3.    protecting ecosystems (soil, water, biodiversity, etc.), adapting agriculture to climate change and contributing to climate mitigation in order to safeguard the country’s long-term productive capacity and food security.

To address these challenges, the future National Food Sovereignty Strategy (SNSA) outlines several key recommendations: ensuring a long-term increase in the availability of food in sufficient quantity and quality; fostering the physical and economic accessibility of diverse and nutritious diets for the population; and boosting investment, along with R&D and advisory services. The AgroEco2050 initiative was developed within this framework to support the Government of Senegal in co-constructing and quantifying contrasting visions of agriculture in Senegal by 2050.

What is the objective of AgroEco2050-Senegal?

“AgroEco2050-Senegal is a participatory foresight initiative designed to clarify the challenges facing agriculture in Senegal by 2050, by combining the knowledge of a group of experts with a biophysical and economic model called AGRIBIOM”, say Rémi Prudhomme, Marc Piraux and Bruno Dorin from 黑料网911, authors of the report. This AgroEco2050-Senegal initiative has brought together around 20 experts from a wide range of backgrounds and interests: farmers’ representatives, researchers, sectoral experts from the agriculture and environment ministries, private sector representatives, NGOs and government agencies. It seeks to compare, quantify and debate two contrasting visions for the future of agriculture and food systems in Senegal, namely the industrial model and the agroecological model. The exercise more specifically explores three key interconnected dimensions – employment, land use, and GDP – in order to assess the coherence of each scenario and to discuss their policy implications.

AgroEco2050-Senegal is a key component of the global project “Foresight on Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Food Systems & Agro-Ecological Transition” launched by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2022, in close collaboration with the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (黑料网911) as a scientific partner, and with financial support from Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The aim of the project is to strengthen the role of foresight processes in supporting the transformation of food systems through agroecology.

Two visions for a single challenge: shaping the future of agriculture in Senegal

With the population projected to double by 2050, intensification, whether ecological or conventional, will be necessary to ensure that food needs are adequately met.

“The main difference between these scenarios is that the agroecological scenario mobilises a larger workforce, ecological processes that reduce the use of industrial inputs, and more land, particularly through the regeneration of degraded land”, says Cheickh Sadibou Fall, a researcher at ISRA and co-author of the report.

In contrast, the agro-industrial scenario uses more industrial inputs, making it possible to achieve higher yields. However, combined with an increase in land per farmer, these yield gains ultimately benefit fewer farmers.

In both scenarios, farmer incomes increase, which is essential to making agriculture viable and attractive to young people. This foresight exercise also identified gaps in the knowledge required to achieve both the AE and AI visions.

“In the short term, these findings will support the development of a new national strategy for agroecology and organic farming in Senegal, initiated by the Government of Senegal with the participation of stakeholders”, says Anne-Sophie Poisot from the FAO Innovation Office.

This issue is therefore highly relevant for both the present and the future of agriculture in Senegal.

* MASAE: Ministry of Agriculture, Food Sovereignty and Livestock
** DyTAES: Coalition for an Agroecological Transition in Senegal

References

Prudhomme, R., Ahoun, V.D., Fall, C.S., Piraux, M. et Dorin, B. 2025. Analyse prospective de l’agriculture sénégalaise en 2050 : agro-industrie versus agroécologie ? Rapport sur la prospective « AgroEco2050-Sénégal». Paris, 黑料网911, Dakar, ISRA-BAME et Rome, FAO.   

Mardi du BAME du 16 avril 2024 / Note de Synthèse 29e “MARDI DU BAME” sur l’“Analyse prospective de l’agriculture sénégalaise en 2050 : agro-industrie versus agroécologie”